The Transatlantic Economy Pulse 2026
How are companies adjusting to an evolving transatlantic trade environment? In a year so far marked by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, The Transatlantic Economy Pulse identifies trade and investment trends between Europe and the US in the first half of 2026.
:focal())
The takeaways
Trade and investment between Europe and the US have had a turbulent 2026. Between January and August, the US goods trade deficit with the EU was 62% lower than in the same period last year, as last year’s tariff-driven stockpiling unwound. Europe’s investment in the US was also up 70.1% in the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025. Earnings on both sides of the Atlantic stayed strong, and there is no single playbook for companies, which are responding in different ways depending on the risks they face. The ties between the US and Europe remain deep and resilient, but they are no guarantee of stability. Both sides need to stay vigilant to stop turbulence from escalating.
Transatlantic goods trade has been volatile. Between January and August 2026, the US goods trade deficit with the EU fell 62% compared with the same period in 2025, as US imports dropped 16.1% year on year while exports rose. Much of the fall reflects the unwinding of last year’s tariff-driven stockpiling. Services trade kept growing, with US services exports to the EU up 11.5% year on year to $176.8 billion in the first half of 2026. The US and the EU remain each other’s biggest services trading partners.
:focal())
Uneven growth
Growth continues on both sides of the Atlantic, but the picture is a split screen. The US economy, driven by heavy investment in artificial intelligence and resilient consumer demand, grew by over 2% in the first half of 2026. Europe’s outlook is mixed. Poland, Spain and several smaller economies are expected to outpace the US this year, while others face tight public finances, structural obstacles and growing competition from Chinese imports.
In a period of volatility, business have found some predictability through the Turnberry Deal.
:focal())
The bottom line
As a new global economic order takes shape, transatlantic business remains robust. US–European ties are deep and mutually beneficial, and no other bilateral economic relationship matters as much to both sides. But these strengths do not guarantee stability. To protect them, the United States and Europe must stay vigilant and work together to stop turbulence from escalating.
:focal())
The Transatlantic Economy 2026
Following a year of political and trade tensions between Europe and the United States, commercial ties between the two sides – the deepest and broadest between any two regions in history – have held remarkably strong. In a new study, authors Daniel Hamilton, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, and Joseph Quinlan, Senior Fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network, value the transatlantic economy at a record $9.8 trillion in 2025, up from $9.5 trillion the previous year. This figure comprises an estimated record $2.3 trillion in goods and services trade between Europe and the United States and $7.5 trillion in combined affiliate sales.
Related items
:focal())
Keeping Europe open and competitive with our Executive Council
Predictability in EU-US relations and Europe’s competitiveness agenda, from simplification to European preference, were centre stage during our Executive Council Fall Plenary on Monday, 9 and Tuesday, 10 November. Our senior business leaders met with EU, US, Canadian and Member State policymakers, as well as industry and think-tank leaders, to discuss the pressures shaping investment decisions in Europe.
The group engaged with the following: Nerijus Aleksiejūnas, Permanent Representative of Lithuania to the European Union; Enrico Letta, President of the Jacques Delors Institute; Roxana Mînzatu, Executive Vice-President for Social Rights and Skills, Quality Jobs and Preparedness, European Commission; Andrew Puzder, Ambassador of the United States to the European Union; Jessika Roswall, European Commissioner for Environment, Water Resilience and a Competitive Circular Economy; Sir Jonathan Symonds, President of the European Round Table for Industry and Chair of GSK and Jonathan Wilkinson, Ambassador of Canada to the European Union.
Throughout the two days, exchanges explored how to maintain momentum on Single Market integration, deliver meaningful regulatory simplification and strengthen the role of industry in developing skills and creating quality jobs. Discussions also touched on the changing international trade landscape, the importance of EU-US cooperation and the priorities that will shape the upcoming Lithuanian Presidency of the Council of the EU.
Learn more about our Executive Council here.
:focal())
Discussing EU-US trade after the midterms with KAS and BDI
On Thursday, 5 November, Malte Lohan, CEO, AmCham EU, spoke at a discussion hosted by Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung Europe and the Federation of German Industries (BDI) on EU-US trade relations after the US midterms. Mr Lohan stressed that elections change the conversation, though not necessarily the outcomes. While the midterms shift power on Capitol Hill, he was not sure this would extend to transatlantic relations, certainly not in the short term. He noted the Turnberry Agreement has brought much-needed predictability, but the relationship remains volatile, with flashpoints ahead that could put stability at risk. The agreement should be solidified and built on, with a move from strategic autonomy to strategic complementarity that will resonate in Washington. Exploring new avenues for partnering where interests align is worthwhile for a $9.8 trillion relationship that employs over 16 million people on both sides of the Atlantic. Learn more about the latest EU-US trade developments in the Transatlantic Economy Pulse.
:focal())
Why stability and openness matter for transatlantic investment
On Wednesday, 21 October 2026, Thibaut L’Ortye, Chief Policy and Public Affairs Officer, AmCham EU, addressed MEPs with Brando Benifei, MEP (S&D, IT) and Chair, and Eva Maydell, MEP (EPP, BG) and Vice-Chair, European Parliament Delegation for relations with the United States. Taking place at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, he presented the latest trade and investment data alongside Daniel Hamilton, co-author of The Transatlantic Economy, stressing that behind the headlines lies the world’s most integrated economic relationship, worth around €8 trillion. He underlined that stability and predictability are essential, urging both sides to build on the Turnberry agreement. He also called for Europe’s industrial strategy to keep the Single Market open to investment. Read more in the latest Transatlantic Economy Pulse.
Policy priorities
Insights and advocacy driving Europe’s policy agenda. Our priorities support growth, innovation and a stronger transatlantic economy.
Membership
Connecting business and policymakers to strengthen the voice of American companies in Europe.