The Transatlantic Economy Pulse 2026

How are companies adjusting to an evolving transatlantic trade environment? In a year so far marked by geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty, The Transatlantic Economy Pulse identifies trade and investment trends between Europe and the US in the first half of 2026.

Publication
23 Oct 2026
Transatlantic

The takeaways

Trade and investment between Europe and the US have had a turbulent 2026. Between January and August, the US goods trade deficit with the EU was 62% lower than in the same period last year, as last year’s tariff-driven stockpiling unwound. Europe’s investment in the US was also up 70.1% in the first half of 2026 compared with the first half of 2025. Earnings on both sides of the Atlantic stayed strong, and there is no single playbook for companies, which are responding in different ways depending on the risks they face. The ties between the US and Europe remain deep and resilient, but they are no guarantee of stability. Both sides need to stay vigilant to stop turbulence from escalating.

Transatlantic goods trade has been volatile. Between January and August 2026, the US goods trade deficit with the EU fell 62% compared with the same period in 2025, as US imports dropped 16.1% year on year while exports rose. Much of the fall reflects the unwinding of last year’s tariff-driven stockpiling. Services trade kept growing, with US services exports to the EU up 11.5% year on year to $176.8 billion in the first half of 2026. The US and the EU remain each other’s biggest services trading partners.

Uneven growth

Growth continues on both sides of the Atlantic, but the picture is a split screen. The US economy, driven by heavy investment in artificial intelligence and resilient consumer demand, grew by over 2% in the first half of 2026. Europe’s outlook is mixed. Poland, Spain and several smaller economies are expected to outpace the US this year, while others face tight public finances, structural obstacles and growing competition from Chinese imports.

In a period of volatility, business have found some predictability through the Turnberry Deal.

The bottom line

As a new global economic order takes shape, transatlantic business remains robust. US–European ties are deep and mutually beneficial, and no other bilateral economic relationship matters as much to both sides. But these strengths do not guarantee stability. To protect them, the United States and Europe must stay vigilant and work together to stop turbulence from escalating.

The Transatlantic Economy 2026

Following a year of political and trade tensions between Europe and the United States, commercial ties between the two sides – the deepest and broadest between any two regions in history – have held remarkably strong. In a new study, authors Daniel Hamilton, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, and Joseph Quinlan, Senior Fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network, value the transatlantic economy at a record $9.8 trillion in 2025, up from $9.5 trillion the previous year. This figure comprises an estimated record $2.3 trillion in goods and services trade between Europe and the United States and $7.5 trillion in combined affiliate sales. 

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The transatlantic relationship at 250 years: a shared history and a forged future

On Saturday, 4 July, the US marks 250 years as a nation built on the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. As Americans at home and abroad celebrate this important milestone, it is an apt moment for Europeans to reflect on their own role in the story of the US. From having shaped the political ideals that are at the heart of modern democracies to becoming a global technological and cultural force, the EU and the US can be proud of all that our shared history has inspired across the world.

This relationship is underpinned by the $9.8 trillion transatlantic economy and the 16 million jobs it supports. However, it was never a given that the ‘Old World’ and the ‘New World’ would forge the largest, most consequential economic relationship on earth. There were periods when wars, economic crises and political shifts kept Europeans and Americans from seeing eye to eye. Yet over time, Europe and the US ultimately found ways of moving forward together, united by aligned interests and shared goals for the future.

Over the centuries, what we achieved together reflects the work not only of political leaders but of ordinary, enterprising citizens, who started businesses and expanded their horizons. They were essential to building the partnership, one transaction and one contract at a time. If we were to rewind to 1776, business owners from Boston and Philadelphia to Berlin and Paris would be familiar with some of the challenges transatlantic business currently faces: shifting policies, supply chain disruptions and uncertainty about what comes next. What might surprise them, however, is the sheer depth and breadth of the partnership in 2026 and its impact on not only Europe and the US but the rest of the world.

The depth of the economy

In the 18th century, crossing the Atlantic took weeks, often making the ocean more of a barrier to trade than a link. ‘Trade’ meant raw and manufactured goods slowly and dangerously sailing on ships between Europe and the nascent US. Merchants could only have dreamed of the $6.4 billion that Europe and the US now trade every single day. With the advent of high-speed transport and the digital economy, every value chain in our economies is shaped by transatlantic commerce. And services have become critical to that. In fact, the EU and the US are the two largest traders of services in the world and are each other’s most important services trading partners.

Important as it is, trade now makes up the smaller part of the $9.8 trillion transatlantic economy: $7.5 trillion comes from selling locally to each other’s markets through our respective foreign subsidiaries, a testament to how deeply integrated the EU-US partnership is. Today, there are 5.3 million employees of European companies in the US and a further 4.6 million employees of US companies in Europe.

The stakes of the partnership

The transatlantic relationship has evolved almost beyond recognition in the last 250 years – giving citizens on both sides of the ocean a myriad reasons to celebrate. It has enabled Europe and the US to grow, innovate and project influence together in a way that would have been impossible alone.

Looking back at the rich shared history of Europe and the US over the past 250 years also provides vital perspective: the undisputed gains for businesses and citizens cannot be taken for granted. The international system is anchored in the transatlantic relationship; the current tensions, rapid technological change and global instability further underscore its vital importance to the world. If businesses and governments grow complacent and fail to maintain the EU-US partnership, the next 250 years could see the relationship lose its ability to protect and nurture the things we hold dear.

This anniversary is the right moment to celebrate America’s role in the world and to recognise how far we’ve come as partners in building our shared destinies. It must also remind us that what the EU and the US have created together is precarious and requires wise and continuous political stewardship from both sides for a prosperous future.

American companies will continue to play their part in bringing the EU and the US together for our shared benefit in a rapidly changing world. On behalf of AmCham EU and our 165 member companies, we congratulate the US on everything it has achieved over the last 250 years, and we join in the celebration of all that we have accomplished together.

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