• Share of American companies in Europe expecting the transatlantic trade and investment relationship to worsen continues its decline from 46% (September 2025) to 28% (July 2026). 

• Despite improving sentiment, most companies still expect EU (63%) and US (51%) policies to negatively affect operations in Europe. 

• Companies rank tackling non-market practices and unfair competition as the top priority for the next phase of cooperation under the EU-US Joint Statement. 

The Turnberry Deal – with its tariff commitments now implemented on both sides – appears to have prevented a return to escalation and unpredictability. Just 21% of companies see the transatlantic trade and investment environment as less predictable than a year ago (13% ‘somewhat less predictable’; 8% ‘much less predictable’). A majority (51%) judged it to be ‘about the same’ as last year and 28% saw it as ‘somewhat more predictable’. 

Despite the improvement in overall sentiment, concerns over transatlantic policymaking remain. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (63%) expect EU policies to negatively affect their operations in Europe over the coming years, up from 56% in September 2025. Meanwhile, 51% expect US policies to have a negative impact on their European operations, down from 60% last September. 

When asked about the progress of the EU’s simplification agenda, American companies in Europe gave mixed reviews. While a majority of respondents (51%) described progress as ‘mixed’, 17% rated it positively and 32% negatively. Companies also reported mixed experiences on the ground: 43% said the effects of simplification were already visible in their operations, while 57% said they had yet to see an impact or that it was too early to tell.