Turnberry Deal has brought a degree of predictability to transatlantic trade and investment, anniversary survey finds

News

27 Jul 2026

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HomePolicy and newsLibraryTurnberry Deal has brought a degree of predictability to transatlantic trade and investment, anniversary survey finds

Share of American companies in Europe expecting the transatlantic trade and investment relationship to worsen continues its decline from 46% (September 2025) to 28% (July 2026).
Despite improving sentiment, most companies still expect EU (63%) and US (51%) policies to negatively affect operations in Europe.
Companies rank tackling non-market practices and unfair competition as the top priority for the next phase of cooperation under the EU-US Joint Statement.

One year after the EU-US Turnberry Deal, a new survey finds that American companies in Europe are less pessimistic about the future of the transatlantic trade and investment relationship. A majority (51%) now expect the relationship to remain stable over the next 12 months, while 21% expect it to improve and 28% expect it to worsen.

The findings represent a significant shift in sentiment since the start of 2025. In January, following the US presidential inauguration, 89% of respondents expected the transatlantic trade and investment relationship to deteriorate. That figure fell to 46% following the publication of the EU-US Joint Statement and now stands at just 28%.

The Turnberry Deal – with its tariff commitments now implemented on both sides – appears to have prevented a return to escalation and unpredictability. Just 21% of companies see the transatlantic trade and investment environment as less predictable than a year ago (13% ‘somewhat less predictable’; 8% ‘much less predictable’). A majority (51%) judged it to be ‘about the same’ as last year and 28% saw it as ‘somewhat more predictable’.

Despite the improvement in overall sentiment, concerns over transatlantic policymaking remain. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (63%) expect EU policies to negatively affect their operations in Europe over the coming years, up from 56% in September 2025. Meanwhile, 51% expect US policies to have a negative impact on their European operations, down from 60% last September.

When asked about the progress of the EU’s simplification agenda, American companies in Europe gave mixed reviews. While a majority of respondents (51%) described progress as ‘mixed’, 17% rated it positively and 32% negatively. Companies also reported mixed experiences on the ground: 43% said the effects of simplification were already visible in their operations, while 57% said they had yet to see an impact or that it was too early to tell.

Alongside further progress on regulatory simplification, surveyed businesses also want policymakers to continue implementing the remaining commitments in the EU-US Joint Statement. Asked to choose among 20 non-tariff commitments in the Joint Statement, companies identified tackling non-market practices and unfair competition as their top recommended priority. AI chips and technology security; sustainability reporting and due diligence; and cooperation on technical standards were the next most frequently cited priorities for EU and US policymakers.

‘One year ago, the EU and the US reached the Turnberry Deal to prevent damaging escalation in transatlantic trade tensions and bring greater stability for businesses. This survey suggests the deal has broadly achieved that objective. Businesses see a more stable transatlantic relationship and one that – so far – has avoided the kind of escalation many feared’, said Malte Lohan, CEO, American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU).

‘The message from companies now is straightforward: stay on this path. Avoid escalation and focus on delivering commitments in the EU-US Joint Statement that matter for businesses on both sides. Taking joint action to tackle non-market practices and unfair competition would be a strong starting point’, Mr Lohan added.

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