Turnberry Deal has brought a degree of predictability to transatlantic trade and investment, anniversary survey finds
News
27 Jul 2026
Transatlantic
  • Share of American companies in Europe expecting the transatlantic trade and investment relationship to worsen continues its decline from 46% (September 2025) to 28% (July 2026). 

  • Despite improving sentiment, most companies still expect EU (63%) and US (51%) policies to negatively affect operations in Europe. 

  • Companies rank tackling non-market practices and unfair competition as the top priority for the next phase of cooperation under the EU-US Joint Statement. 

One year after the EU-US Turnberry Deal, a new survey finds that American companies in Europe are less pessimistic about the future of the transatlantic trade and investment relationship. A majority (51%) now expect the relationship to remain stable over the next 12 months, while 21% expect it to improve and 28% expect it to worsen. 

The findings represent a significant shift in sentiment since the start of 2025. In January, following the US presidential inauguration, 89% of respondents expected the transatlantic trade and investment relationship to deteriorate. That figure fell to 46% following the publication of the EU-US Joint Statement and now stands at just 28%. 

The Turnberry Deal – with its tariff commitments now implemented on both sides – appears to have prevented a return to escalation and unpredictability. Just 21% of companies see the transatlantic trade and investment environment as less predictable than a year ago (13% ‘somewhat less predictable’; 8% ‘much less predictable’). A majority (51%) judged it to be ‘about the same’ as last year and 28% saw it as ‘somewhat more predictable’. 

Despite the improvement in overall sentiment, concerns over transatlantic policymaking remain. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (63%) expect EU policies to negatively affect their operations in Europe over the coming years, up from 56% in September 2025. Meanwhile, 51% expect US policies to have a negative impact on their European operations, down from 60% last September. 

When asked about the progress of the EU’s simplification agenda, American companies in Europe gave mixed reviews. While a majority of respondents (51%) described progress as ‘mixed’, 17% rated it positively and 32% negatively. Companies also reported mixed experiences on the ground: 43% said the effects of simplification were already visible in their operations, while 57% said they had yet to see an impact or that it was too early to tell. 

Alongside further progress on regulatory simplification, surveyed businesses also want policymakers to continue implementing the remaining commitments in the EU-US Joint Statement. Asked to choose among 20 non-tariff commitments in the Joint Statement, companies identified tackling non-market practices and unfair competition as their top recommended priority. AI chips and technology security; sustainability reporting and due diligence; and cooperation on technical standards were the next most frequently cited priorities for EU and US policymakers.  

‘One year ago, the EU and the US reached the Turnberry Deal to prevent damaging escalation in transatlantic trade tensions and bring greater stability for businesses. This survey suggests the deal has broadly achieved that objective. Businesses see a more stable transatlantic relationship and one that – so far – has avoided the kind of escalation many feared’, said Malte Lohan, CEO, American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU). 

‘The message from companies now is straightforward: stay on this path. Avoid escalation and focus on delivering commitments in the EU-US Joint Statement that matter for businesses on both sides. Taking joint action to tackle non-market practices and unfair competition would be a strong starting point’, Mr Lohan added.   

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3 Jul 2026

The transatlantic relationship at 250 years: a shared history and a forged future

On Saturday, 4 July, the US marks 250 years as a nation built on the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. As Americans at home and abroad celebrate this important milestone, it is an apt moment for Europeans to reflect on their own role in the story of the US. From having shaped the political ideals that are at the heart of modern democracies to becoming a global technological and cultural force, the EU and the US can be proud of all that our shared history has inspired across the world.

This relationship is underpinned by the $9.8 trillion transatlantic economy and the 16 million jobs it supports. However, it was never a given that the ‘Old World’ and the ‘New World’ would forge the largest, most consequential economic relationship on earth. There were periods when wars, economic crises and political shifts kept Europeans and Americans from seeing eye to eye. Yet over time, Europe and the US ultimately found ways of moving forward together, united by aligned interests and shared goals for the future.

Over the centuries, what we achieved together reflects the work not only of political leaders but of ordinary, enterprising citizens, who started businesses and expanded their horizons. They were essential to building the partnership, one transaction and one contract at a time. If we were to rewind to 1776, business owners from Boston and Philadelphia to Berlin and Paris would be familiar with some of the challenges transatlantic business currently faces: shifting policies, supply chain disruptions and uncertainty about what comes next. What might surprise them, however, is the sheer depth and breadth of the partnership in 2026 and its impact on not only Europe and the US but the rest of the world.

The depth of the economy

In the 18th century, crossing the Atlantic took weeks, often making the ocean more of a barrier to trade than a link. ‘Trade’ meant raw and manufactured goods slowly and dangerously sailing on ships between Europe and the nascent US. Merchants could only have dreamed of the $6.4 billion that Europe and the US now trade every single day. With the advent of high-speed transport and the digital economy, every value chain in our economies is shaped by transatlantic commerce. And services have become critical to that. In fact, the EU and the US are the two largest traders of services in the world and are each other’s most important services trading partners.

Important as it is, trade now makes up the smaller part of the $9.8 trillion transatlantic economy: $7.5 trillion comes from selling locally to each other’s markets through our respective foreign subsidiaries, a testament to how deeply integrated the EU-US partnership is. Today, there are 5.3 million employees of European companies in the US and a further 4.6 million employees of US companies in Europe.

The stakes of the partnership

The transatlantic relationship has evolved almost beyond recognition in the last 250 years – giving citizens on both sides of the ocean a myriad reasons to celebrate. It has enabled Europe and the US to grow, innovate and project influence together in a way that would have been impossible alone.

Looking back at the rich shared history of Europe and the US over the past 250 years also provides vital perspective: the undisputed gains for businesses and citizens cannot be taken for granted. The international system is anchored in the transatlantic relationship; the current tensions, rapid technological change and global instability further underscore its vital importance to the world. If businesses and governments grow complacent and fail to maintain the EU-US partnership, the next 250 years could see the relationship lose its ability to protect and nurture the things we hold dear.

This anniversary is the right moment to celebrate America’s role in the world and to recognise how far we’ve come as partners in building our shared destinies. It must also remind us that what the EU and the US have created together is precarious and requires wise and continuous political stewardship from both sides for a prosperous future.

American companies will continue to play their part in bringing the EU and the US together for our shared benefit in a rapidly changing world. On behalf of AmCham EU and our 165 member companies, we congratulate the US on everything it has achieved over the last 250 years, and we join in the celebration of all that we have accomplished together.

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Position Paper
16 Jun 2026

Implementing the EU-US Joint Statement

With the EU having formally adopted the tariff reductions agreed under the EU-US Framework Agreement, the two sides now have an opportunity to enter a new phase.

The agreement has the potential to help restore stability and predictability for citizens and businesses on both sides of the Atlantic and provide the basis for continued collaborationbetween the EU and US. The goal should be to bring their shared $9.8 trillion commercial relationship to a more constructive place, focusing on cooperation where interests align.

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News
16 Jun 2026

European Parliament plenary vote paves way for stronger transatlantic marketplace

Today, the European Parliament took a positive step to bring a degree of predictability to the transatlantic trade and investment climate. With their decision to approve tariff reductions on certain imports from the US, MEPs have demonstrated the EU’s commitment to honouring its side of the EU-US Framework Agreement. 

Given the importance of the $9.8 trillion transatlantic marketplace for jobs and prosperity on both sides of the Atlantic, the EU and the US must now continue down this track, pursuing cooperation based on the Framework Agreement. While AmCham EU opposes tariffs, the EU‑US Framework Agreement provides the most realistic path to de‑escalation in trade tensions and a more constructive relationship. 

With the initial tariff reductions adopted, the EU and the US can move to advance other priorities identified in the August 2025 EU-US Joint Statement. In particular, the two sides should focus on joint action in four areas: tackling shared geopolitical challenges, bolstering supply chain security, strengthening transatlantic digital commerce and striking mutual recognition agreements (AmCham EU has set out these recommendations here). Cooperation in these four areas will bring benefits to American and European businesses alike.    

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