One year on from ‘Liberation Day’, the transatlantic economy still stands strong – but it needs stability
Blog
2 Apr 2026
Trade, Transatlantic, Trade tensions
Malte Lohan
CEO, AmCham EU

After the United States announced its reciprocal tariffs last April, EU-US trade has experienced a year of uncertainty that continues to shape business decisions today. Markets reacted. Companies adapted. Escalation gave way to the promise of stabilisation, then back again. And through it all, the world’s most integrated economic relationship was put through a stress test. 

So, what did all this volatility mean for the health of the transatlantic economy over the past year? 

Overall, despite the political headwinds, the undercurrents of transatlantic commerce appear to have held firm. The Transatlantic Economy 2026, our annual study offering the latest insights on jobs, trade and investment between Europe and the United States, finds that trade in goods between Europe and the US actually hit a new record high of $1.46 trillion in 2025. At the same time, American companies recorded estimated sales of $3.9 trillion in Europe – another all-time high – while European companies recorded sales of $3.5 trillion in the US. Transatlantic services trade continued to post gains too. 

These figures do not happen by accident. They reflect the sheer scale and interconnectedness of this $9.8 trillion commercial relationship, built on decades of mutual foreign direct investment (FDI). US FDI stock in Europe stands at $4 trillion; European FDI stock in the US stands at $3.6 trillion. And this investment has an impact on the bottom line: in the first nine months of last year, Europe accounted for 58.8% of total income earned by US subsidiaries around the world. 

In short, here we are, a year later, still trading, still investing, still interlinked in ways that no other economic partnership in the world can match.  

That is not to downplay the risks. When you dig underneath some of the headline figures from the last year, you see signs of strain. The 2025 trade in goods numbers, for instance, are a tale of two halves. Companies did what they always do: adapt. To avoid the uncertainty of potential tariffs, businesses importing from Europe to the US frontloaded their shipments. This meant that while US imports had risen by 30% compared to 2024 up to June, this increase levelled out to a more modest 9% by the end of the year. US affiliate sales growth in Europe should also be read with some caution, as exchange rate shifts – particularly a stronger euro – played a role in inflating top-line numbers. 

The point is there can be no room for complacency. A thriving transatlantic economy benefits Europe and the US alike. At a moment when economic resilience, supply chain dependencies and shifting security realities are central to policy debates on both sides of the Atlantic, it is worth recalling that European and American companies are strongest – and most competitive globally – when they can rely on the scale of the transatlantic economy.  

The good news is that transatlantic trade relations are heading towards a more constructive place. Following the European Parliament’s vote to approve tariff reductions for certain imports from the US, it looks like the EU is now moving forward with the agreed steps to implement the July 2025 EU-US Framework Agreement. This is a process that should help to put the transatlantic trade and investment relationship back on firmer footing. 

The EU-US Framework Agreement is not perfect, but it beats unrelenting trade tensions. AmCham EU opposes broad-based tariffs for the disruption they pose to supply chains and the costs they raise for businesses and consumers. However, given political priorities on both sides, this Framework Agreement still provides the most realistic path to a more constructive EU-US trade and investment climate that helps businesses plan ahead. 

The Framework Agreement is about more than just tariffs. The deal also envisages cooperation in a range of critical areas like advancing more resilient critical mineral supply chains, coordinating on export controls, tackling non-market trading practices and accelerating mutual recognition agreements in cybersecurity, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. These opportunities identified last summer still align with business imperatives on both sides of the Atlantic today. 

In the end, the transatlantic economy is too important and mutually beneficial to allow the next 12 months to be as unpredictable as the last. With the geopolitical and security environment becoming increasingly unsettled, the last thing companies need is more uncertainty around transatlantic trade and investment. Opportunities for cooperation in line with the Framework Agreement are a bridge that can turn a year of turbulence into a turning point – one where Europe and the United States recommit to the partnership that underpins both of their economic futures. 

The Transatlantic Economy 2026

Following a year of political and trade tensions between Europe and the United States, commercial ties between the two sides – the deepest and broadest between any two regions in history – have held remarkably strong. In a new study, authors Daniel Hamilton, Senior Fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute of Johns Hopkins University’s Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, and Joseph Quinlan, Senior Fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network, value the transatlantic economy at a record $9.8 trillion in 2025, up from $9.5 trillion the previous year. This figure comprises an estimated record $2.3 trillion in goods and services trade between Europe and the United States and $7.5 trillion in combined affiliate sales. 

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The transatlantic relationship at 250 years: a shared history and a forged future

On Saturday, 4 July, the US marks 250 years as a nation built on the right to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. As Americans at home and abroad celebrate this important milestone, it is an apt moment for Europeans to reflect on their own role in the story of the US. From having shaped the political ideals that are at the heart of modern democracies to becoming a global technological and cultural force, the EU and the US can be proud of all that our shared history has inspired across the world.

This relationship is underpinned by the $9.8 trillion transatlantic economy and the 16 million jobs it supports. However, it was never a given that the ‘Old World’ and the ‘New World’ would forge the largest, most consequential economic relationship on earth. There were periods when wars, economic crises and political shifts kept Europeans and Americans from seeing eye to eye. Yet over time, Europe and the US ultimately found ways of moving forward together, united by aligned interests and shared goals for the future.

Over the centuries, what we achieved together reflects the work not only of political leaders but of ordinary, enterprising citizens, who started businesses and expanded their horizons. They were essential to building the partnership, one transaction and one contract at a time. If we were to rewind to 1776, business owners from Boston and Philadelphia to Berlin and Paris would be familiar with some of the challenges transatlantic business currently faces: shifting policies, supply chain disruptions and uncertainty about what comes next. What might surprise them, however, is the sheer depth and breadth of the partnership in 2026 and its impact on not only Europe and the US but the rest of the world.

The depth of the economy

In the 18th century, crossing the Atlantic took weeks, often making the ocean more of a barrier to trade than a link. ‘Trade’ meant raw and manufactured goods slowly and dangerously sailing on ships between Europe and the nascent US. Merchants could only have dreamed of the $6.4 billion that Europe and the US now trade every single day. With the advent of high-speed transport and the digital economy, every value chain in our economies is shaped by transatlantic commerce. And services have become critical to that. In fact, the EU and the US are the two largest traders of services in the world and are each other’s most important services trading partners.

Important as it is, trade now makes up the smaller part of the $9.8 trillion transatlantic economy: $7.5 trillion comes from selling locally to each other’s markets through our respective foreign subsidiaries, a testament to how deeply integrated the EU-US partnership is. Today, there are 5.3 million employees of European companies in the US and a further 4.6 million employees of US companies in Europe.

The stakes of the partnership

The transatlantic relationship has evolved almost beyond recognition in the last 250 years – giving citizens on both sides of the ocean a myriad reasons to celebrate. It has enabled Europe and the US to grow, innovate and project influence together in a way that would have been impossible alone.

Looking back at the rich shared history of Europe and the US over the past 250 years also provides vital perspective: the undisputed gains for businesses and citizens cannot be taken for granted. The international system is anchored in the transatlantic relationship; the current tensions, rapid technological change and global instability further underscore its vital importance to the world. If businesses and governments grow complacent and fail to maintain the EU-US partnership, the next 250 years could see the relationship lose its ability to protect and nurture the things we hold dear.

This anniversary is the right moment to celebrate America’s role in the world and to recognise how far we’ve come as partners in building our shared destinies. It must also remind us that what the EU and the US have created together is precarious and requires wise and continuous political stewardship from both sides for a prosperous future.

American companies will continue to play their part in bringing the EU and the US together for our shared benefit in a rapidly changing world. On behalf of AmCham EU and our 165 member companies, we congratulate the US on everything it has achieved over the last 250 years, and we join in the celebration of all that we have accomplished together.

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