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A new survey of American companies in Europe shows that, despite lingering pessimism, the July EU-US Framework Agreement is seen as having helped stabilise the outlook for transatlantic trade and investment. Nearly half (46%) of respondents still expect the relationship to worsen, but this is down sharply from 89% in the last survey, conducted in January 2025.
Following the Turnberry deal, more companies now foresee stability (33%, up from 9%), suggesting the deal is viewed as having averted further deterioration in EU-US relations. Optimism has also risen tenfold, with 21% anticipating improvement, compared with just 2% in January. The findings contrast with the political debate surrounding the Framework Agreement, which has been marked by vocal opposition in the European Parliament and in certain EU Member States.
Companies’ more tempered outlook on transatlantic commerce differs from their persistent anxiety about how EU and US policies are shaping the business climate in Europe. A majority (56%) anticipate a negative effect from EU policies on their European operations over the coming years, up slightly from 52% in the last survey. Meanwhile, 31% expect EU policies to have a ‘somewhat positive’ impact on their European operations. For US policies, 60% predict a negative impact on their European operations, down from 67% previously, while positive sentiment rose from 3% to 13%.
Against this backdrop, businesses’ priorities for implementation of the Framework Agreement are clear. Half of the respondents identified timely tariff reductions as their top priority for implementing the deal. Addressing non-tariff barriers, including those stemming from regulations highlighted in the Joint Statement (eg the EU Deforestation Regulation, the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism and the Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive), and strengthening regulatory cooperation and mutual recognition completed the top three.
Looking beyond implementation of the Framework Agreement, companies are consistent in what they want to see prioritised in the next stage of EU-US cooperation. As in January, companies call for EU and US policymakers to reduce regulatory burdens, enhance their engagement with the business community and continue to lower tariffs across more sectors.
‘Much of the debate in Brussels and EU capitals has focused on what is wrong with the Framework Agreement. Yet the view among businesses – those actually experiencing the day-to-day realities of the transatlantic marketplace – is different. They see it as having averted unprecedented damage to transatlantic trade and investment, even as real concerns about the policy environment remain’, said Malte Lohan, CEO, American Chamber of Commerce to the European Union (AmCham EU).
‘While it feels like so much has changed in EU-US relations since the start of the year, what our members are calling for has stayed the same: lower tariffs and a reduced regulatory burden. This period of steadier relations should not be wasted. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic must use this opportunity to lock in predictability so businesses can plan and invest with confidence’, Mr Lohan added.
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